· Analysis updated 20:10 UTC
Baku Sportinq vs Difai Ağsu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Baku Sportinq and 0.73 for Difai Ağsu, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Baku Sportinq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Baku Sportinq win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baku Sportinq home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Difai Ağsu away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Baku Sportinq
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Səbail · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zaqatala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şahdağ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaqatala · 3-0 (W)
Difai Ağsu
- 2026-05-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MOIK · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şimal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Baku Sportinq · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Səbail · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-30T12:30:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 1-1 Difai Ağsu (Birinci Dasta)
- 2026-03-12T11:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 3-1 Difai Ağsu (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 2-2 Difai Ağsu (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-05-08T13:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 1-2 Difai Ağsu (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-03-06T10:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 1-0 Difai Ağsu (Birinci Dasta)
- 2024-12-11T10:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 0-2 Difai Ağsu (Birinci Dasta)
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cəbrayıl | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Şahdağ | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | MOIK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Səbail | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Karvan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Şimal | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Baku Sportinq win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.