· Analysis updated 08:14 UTC
Baku Sportinq vs MOIK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Baku Sportinq and 1.42 for MOIK, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives MOIK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MOIK win
52.9% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baku Sportinq home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MOIK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MOIK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 20% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Baku Sportinq and 1.42 for MOIK, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.1%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–211.4%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
Baku Sportinq
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Səbail · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zaqatala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şahdağ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaqatala · 3-0 (W)
MOIK
- 2026-10-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mingəçevir · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Xankəndi FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Şimal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Şahdağ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Difai Ağsu · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MOIK win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.