· Analysis updated 18:57 UTC
Baku Sportinq vs Səbail Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Baku Sportinq and 1.92 for Səbail, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Səbail the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Səbail win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baku Sportinq home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Səbail away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Səbail to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 15% / 21% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Baku Sportinq and 1.92 for Səbail, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–37.6%
Recent form
Baku Sportinq
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Səbail · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zaqatala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şahdağ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaqatala · 3-0 (W)
Səbail
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Şahdağ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaqatala · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Karvan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Baku Sportinq · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Mingəçevir · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cəbrayıl | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Şahdağ | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | MOIK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Səbail | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Karvan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Şimal | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Səbail win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.