· Analysis updated 06:09 UTC
Baku Sportinq vs Zaqatala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Baku Sportinq and 0.90 for Zaqatala, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Baku Sportinq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Baku Sportinq win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baku Sportinq home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zaqatala away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 2–011.0%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
Baku Sportinq
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Səbail · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zaqatala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şahdağ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaqatala · 3-0 (W)
Zaqatala
- 2026-09-16T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Karvan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Baku Sportinq · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mingəçevir · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-22T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baku Sportinq · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 3-0 Zaqatala (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-12-24T10:30:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 2-1 Zaqatala (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 1-1 Zaqatala (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-04-10T12:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 1-6 Zaqatala (Birinci Dasta)
- 2025-02-07T10:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 0-0 Zaqatala (Birinci Dasta)
- 2024-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · Baku Sportinq 0-2 Zaqatala (Birinci Dasta)
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cəbrayıl | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Şahdağ | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | MOIK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Səbail | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Karvan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Şimal | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Baku Sportinq win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.