Balikesir Ataturk Stadyumu · Analysis updated 00:01 UTC
Balıkesirspor vs Akşehirspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Balıkesirspor and 1.00 for Akşehirspor, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Balıkesirspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Balıkesirspor win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balıkesirspor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Balıkesirspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Balıkesirspor and 1.00 for Akşehirspor, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.2%
Recent form
Balıkesirspor
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Etimesgut SK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Akşehirspor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bigaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bigaspor · 2-3 (L)
Akşehirspor
- 2019-08-28T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Somaspor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nilüfer Belediye | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Etimesgut SK | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Balıkesirspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Eskişehirspor | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 6 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Ayvalikgucu | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Bigaspor | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Karsiyaka | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Gaziemirspor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Altay | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Söke 1970 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Uşak Spor | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Bucaspor 1928 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Denizli İYG | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Kepezspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Alanya 1221 FK | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Akşehirspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -15 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Balıkesirspor win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.