Balikesir Ataturk Stadyumu · Analysis updated 08:14 UTC
Balıkesirspor vs Bucaspor 1928 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.94 expected goals for Balıkesirspor and 1.52 for Bucaspor 1928, a combined total of 4.47. That distribution gives Balıkesirspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Balıkesirspor win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.94 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balıkesirspor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bucaspor 1928 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Balıkesirspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 16% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.94 goals for Balıkesirspor and 1.52 for Bucaspor 1928, a combined 4.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–25.8%
- 3–25.7%
- 4–15.5%
Recent form
Balıkesirspor
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Akşehirspor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bigaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bigaspor · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskişehirspor · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Uşak Spor · 4-1 (W)
Bucaspor 1928
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kepezspor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaziemirspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Etimesgut SK · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nilüfer Belediye | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Eskişehirspor | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 14 |
| 4 | Bigaspor | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Etimesgut SK | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Ayvalikgucu | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Balıkesirspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Karsiyaka | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Gaziemirspor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Altay | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Söke 1970 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Uşak Spor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Bucaspor 1928 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Alanya 1221 FK | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Denizli İYG | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Akşehirspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | Kepezspor | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Balıkesirspor win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.