El Mahalla Stadium · Analysis updated 14:54 UTC
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs Haras El Hodood Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla and 1.10 for Haras El Hodood, a combined total of 1.74. That distribution gives Haras El Hodood the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Haras El Hodood win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
0.64 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Haras El Hodood away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haras El Hodood to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 21% / 32% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla and 1.10 for Haras El Hodood, a combined 1.74 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.3%
- 0–017.6%
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–210.6%
Recent form
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
- 2026-08-28T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Dakhleya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs El Mansura · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-14T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Asyut Petrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Mansura · 0-0 (D)
Haras El Hodood
- 2026-09-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Entag EL Harby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AL Nasr SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Itesalat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghazl El Mehalla · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrojet · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Haras El Hodood | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Kahraba Ismailia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Pharco | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Itesalat | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | El Mansura | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | AL Nasr SC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Tersana | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | El Seka El Hadid | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | El Entag EL Harby | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Ismaily SC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | El Dakhleya | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Tanta SC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Team | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Dayrout | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Proxy | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | La Viena FC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 20 | Mega Sport | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haras El Hodood win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.