· Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Balatonalmádi vs MTE 1904 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Balatonalmádi and 2.15 for MTE 1904, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives MTE 1904 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MTE 1904 win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balatonalmádi home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
MTE 1904 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MTE 1904 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 17% / 20% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Balatonalmádi and 2.15 for MTE 1904, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–37.1%
Recent form
Balatonalmádi
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Király SZE · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Puskás II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sárisápi Bányász · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Sopron · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tatabánya · 0-4 (L)
MTE 1904
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pápai Perutz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Komárom · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs 1908 SZAC · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Veszprém · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dorogi FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 26 |
| 2 | Tatabánya | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Haladás VSE | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 25 |
| 4 | Sárisápi Bányász | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | SC Sopron | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 6 | Bicskei | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Puskás II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | MTE 1904 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Komárom | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Gyori ETO II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Veszprém | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Pápai Perutz | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 14 | Király SZE | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 5 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -26 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MTE 1904 win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.