· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Balatoni Vasas vs Nagykozar KSE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Balatoni Vasas and 1.15 for Nagykozar KSE, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Balatoni Vasas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Balatoni Vasas win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balatoni Vasas home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Balatoni Vasas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Balatoni Vasas and 1.15 for Nagykozar KSE, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Balatoni Vasas
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nagykozar KSE · 0-1 (L)
- 2021-08-07T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Semjénháza · 0-1 (L)
- 2019-10-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dabas-Gyón · 0-4 (L)
- 2019-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kecskeméti LC · 4-2 (W)
- 2014-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fertőszentmiklós · 0-0 (D)
Nagykozar KSE
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kisvarda FC · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Balatoni Vasas · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Balatoni Vasas win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.