Grindleford Reserve · Analysis updated 16:05 UTC
Balcatta vs Stirling Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Balcatta and 2.15 for Stirling Lions, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Stirling Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stirling Lions win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balcatta home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stirling Lions away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–36.6%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Balcatta
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Dianella White Eagle · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Western Knights · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Armadale · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth RedStar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Stirling Lions · 2-0 (W)
Stirling Lions
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Knights · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayswater City · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Dianella White Eagle · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Armadale · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Balcatta · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 2-0 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2026-05-30T07:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 1-3 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2026-02-01T12:30:00.000Z · Balcatta 0-2 Stirling Lions (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-07-12T07:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 0-6 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-04-19T07:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 1-2 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-08-10T07:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 2-2 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-05-18T07:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 0-3 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2023-07-01T07:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 0-0 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2023-04-08T07:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 2-1 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
- 2022-06-25T09:00:00.000Z · Balcatta 0-0 Stirling Lions (Western Australia NPL)
Western Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stirling Lions win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.