· Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Balkan Botevgrad vs Botev Ihtiman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Balkan Botevgrad and 2.00 for Botev Ihtiman, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Botev Ihtiman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Botev Ihtiman win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balkan Botevgrad home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Botev Ihtiman away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Balkan Botevgrad
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kostinbrod · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slivnishki geroy · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-0 (W)
Botev Ihtiman
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Razlog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Natsional Sofia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chavdar Etropole · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia III · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 1-0 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 3-3 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-11-01T12:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 2-0 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 2-2 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 0-1 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-03-02T13:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 2-2 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 4-3 Botev Ihtiman (Cup)
- 2023-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 3-5 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 3-1 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · Balkan Botevgrad 2-0 Botev Ihtiman (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Botev Ihtiman win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.