· Analysis updated 14:04 UTC
Balkan Botevgrad vs Oborishte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Balkan Botevgrad and 1.65 for Oborishte, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Oborishte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Oborishte win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balkan Botevgrad home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oborishte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Balkan Botevgrad and 1.65 for Oborishte, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Balkan Botevgrad
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kostinbrod · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slivnishki geroy · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-0 (W)
Oborishte
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Sofia II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra 2019 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Simitli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oborishte win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.