· Analysis updated 18:07 UTC
Ballinamallard United vs Annagh United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ballinamallard United and 1.53 for Annagh United, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Ballinamallard United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ballinamallard United home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Annagh United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Ballinamallard United
- 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Warrenpoint Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 1-1 (D)
Annagh United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 0-0 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2025-12-26T13:30:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 1-0 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 1-1 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 0-1 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2024-12-14T15:00:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 0-3 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 0-1 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2024-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 1-0 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2023-12-02T15:00:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 2-0 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2023-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 0-0 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2023-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · Ballinamallard United 2-0 Annagh United (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Ballinamallard United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Queen's University | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Loughgall | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Ards | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | H&W Welders | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.