· Analysis updated 00:06 UTC
Ballyclare Comrades vs Carrick Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ballyclare Comrades and 3.15 for Carrick Rangers, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Carrick Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Carrick Rangers win
80.2% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 3.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ballyclare Comrades home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carrick Rangers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carrick Rangers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 8% / 12% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Ballyclare Comrades and 3.15 for Carrick Rangers, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.6%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–46.8%
Recent form
Ballyclare Comrades
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Loughgall · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 0-3 (L)
Carrick Rangers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Carrick Rangers win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.