· Analysis updated 07:57 UTC
Ballyclare Comrades vs Loughgall Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ballyclare Comrades and 1.95 for Loughgall, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Loughgall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Loughgall win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ballyclare Comrades home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Loughgall away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Loughgall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 28% / 22% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Ballyclare Comrades and 1.95 for Loughgall, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–16.9%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
Ballyclare Comrades
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Loughgall · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 0-3 (L)
Loughgall
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Institute · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moyola Park · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Loughgall win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.