Dixon Park · Analysis updated 00:06 UTC
Ballyclare Comrades vs Rathfriland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ballyclare Comrades and 2.28 for Rathfriland, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Rathfriland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rathfriland win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ballyclare Comrades home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rathfriland away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rathfriland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 26% / 20% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Ballyclare Comrades and 2.28 for Rathfriland, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–15.9%
Recent form
Ballyclare Comrades
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Loughgall · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 0-3 (L)
Rathfriland
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ards · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Glenavon FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Intermediate League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strabane Athletic | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 48 |
| 2 | Dollingstown | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Moyola Park | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 43 |
| 4 | Rathfriland | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 41 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 41 |
| 6 | Ballymacash Rangers | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 40 |
| 7 | Dergview | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 8 | Ballyclare Comrades | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Oxford Sunnyside | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 35 |
| 10 | Portstewart | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Knockbreda | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 33 |
| 12 | Coagh United | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -19 | 27 |
| 13 | Lisburn Distillery | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 25 |
| 14 | Banbridge Town | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | -79 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rathfriland win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.