Ballymacash Rangers vs Lisburn Distillery Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Ballymacash Rangers and 1.63 for Lisburn Distillery, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Ballymacash Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ballymacash Rangers win

57.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.55 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ballymacash Rangers home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lisburn Distillery away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ballymacash Rangers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for Ballymacash Rangers and 1.63 for Lisburn Distillery, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ballymacash Rangers win58%

Draw19%

Lisburn Distillery win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–18.1%
3–16.9%
2–26.6%
1–16.4%
3–25.6%

Recent form

Ballymacash Rangers

2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annagh United · 2-5 (L)
2026-07-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Greystones United · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-15T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Ards Rangers · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portstewart · 2-1 (W)

Lisburn Distillery

2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 0-6 (L)
2026-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 4-4 (D)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymacash Rangers · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:55.000Z · H vs Knockbreda · 3-3 (D)
2026-04-11T14:00:45.000Z · H vs Dergview · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier Intermediate League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strabane Athletic	25	15	3	7	11	48
2	Dollingstown	26	14	4	8	18	46
3	Moyola Park	25	13	4	8	34	43
4	Rathfriland	22	13	2	7	30	41
5	Newry City AFC	24	12	5	7	8	41
6	Ballymacash Rangers	24	13	1	10	11	40
7	Dergview	23	10	6	7	5	36
8	Ballyclare Comrades	26	11	3	12	-2	36
9	Oxford Sunnyside	25	11	2	12	6	35
10	Portstewart	25	9	7	9	-1	34
11	Knockbreda	25	9	6	10	-6	33
12	Coagh United	26	7	6	13	-19	27
13	Lisburn Distillery	25	7	4	14	-16	25
14	Banbridge Town	23	1	1	21	-79	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ballymacash Rangers win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.