The Bluebell Stadium · Analysis updated 00:07 UTC
Ballymacash Rangers vs Portstewart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Ballymacash Rangers and 1.53 for Portstewart, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Ballymacash Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ballymacash Rangers win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ballymacash Rangers home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portstewart away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Ballymacash Rangers
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annagh United · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Greystones United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-15T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Ards Rangers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portstewart · 2-1 (W)
Portstewart
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Coleraine FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballymacash Rangers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Knockbreda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:06.000Z · H vs Oxford Sunnyside · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · Ballymacash Rangers 2-1 Portstewart (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2026-01-03T13:00:00.000Z · Ballymacash Rangers 2-4 Portstewart (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymacash Rangers 1-3 Portstewart (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymacash Rangers 6-1 Portstewart (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2024-03-02T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymacash Rangers 4-1 Portstewart (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2023-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymacash Rangers 2-1 Portstewart (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2023-03-18T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymacash Rangers 1-2 Portstewart (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2022-08-23T17:30:00.000Z · Ballymacash Rangers 3-0 Portstewart (Premier Intermediate League)
Premier Intermediate League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strabane Athletic | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 48 |
| 2 | Dollingstown | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Moyola Park | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 43 |
| 4 | Rathfriland | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 41 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 41 |
| 6 | Ballymacash Rangers | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 40 |
| 7 | Dergview | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 36 |
| 8 | Ballyclare Comrades | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | -2 | 36 |
| 9 | Oxford Sunnyside | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 35 |
| 10 | Portstewart | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Knockbreda | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 33 |
| 12 | Coagh United | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -19 | 27 |
| 13 | Lisburn Distillery | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 25 |
| 14 | Banbridge Town | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | -79 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ballymacash Rangers win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.