Ballymena Showgrounds · Referee L. Thompson · Analysis updated 06:16 UTC
Ballymena United vs Carrick Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ballymena United and 1.80 for Carrick Rangers, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Carrick Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Carrick Rangers win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ballymena United home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Carrick Rangers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Ballymena United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 1-1 (D)
Carrick Rangers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · Ballymena United 3-0 Carrick Rangers (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 3-2 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
- 2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 2-1 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-12-20T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-1 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 2-1 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-1 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-01-18T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 0-0 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
- 2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-2 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
- 2024-09-17T18:45:00.000Z · Ballymena United 4-1 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-2 Carrick Rangers (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Linfield | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Larne | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Crusaders FC | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Ballymena United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Cliftonville FC | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Portadown | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Bangor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Carrick Rangers win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.