Ballymena Showgrounds · Referee S. Andrews · Analysis updated 11:48 UTC
Ballymena United vs Portadown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Ballymena United and 0.95 for Portadown, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Ballymena United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ballymena United win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ballymena United home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Portadown away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 51.7% vs market 42.4%, edge +9.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 51.7% | 1.93 | +9.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.1% | 48.7% | 2.05 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.80 | 51.0% | 51.3% | 1.95 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 3.92 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.9% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.90 | 23.5% | 23.2% | 4.31 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 48.3% | 2.07 | -9.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ballymena United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dungannon Swifts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 1-1 (D)
Portadown
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Limavady United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-2 Portadown (Premiership)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-1 Portadown (Premiership)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 0-1 Portadown (Premiership)
- 2025-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · Ballymena United 2-0 Portadown (Premiership)
- 2025-04-26T16:30:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-2 Portadown (Premiership)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 2-0 Portadown (Premiership)
- 2024-11-01T19:45:00.000Z · Ballymena United 0-3 Portadown (Premiership)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-0 Portadown (Premiership)
- 2023-07-25T18:30:00.000Z · Ballymena United 1-2 Portadown (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-07T18:45:00.000Z · Ballymena United 0-1 Portadown (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ballymena United win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.