Baltika II vs Zvezda St. Petersburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Baltika II and 1.53 for Zvezda St. Petersburg, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Baltika II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baltika II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baltika II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Baltika II and 1.53 for Zvezda St. Petersburg, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Baltika II win43%

Draw23%

Zvezda St. Petersburg win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–18.8%
1–27.8%
2–26.7%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Baltika II

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yenisey II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo Moscow · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherepovets · 1-4 (L)

Zvezda St. Petersburg

2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tver · 1-8 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra Smolensk · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Murom · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Vladimir · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Murom	21	14	2	5	18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	12	6	2	22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	12	6	3	18	42
4	Baltika II	21	12	4	5	19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	11	6	4	21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	9	5	6	5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	8	4	9	-6	28
8	Tver	21	7	3	11	-6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	7	3	10	-11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	5	9	6	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	6	5	9	3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	6	5	10	-6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	5	4	12	-17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	3	6	12	-25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	3	2	16	-35	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.