Baltika vs FC Rostov Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Baltika and 1.01 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Baltika the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Baltika win

56.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baltika home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baltika to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Baltika and 1.01 for FC Rostov, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Baltika win56%

Draw23%

FC Rostov win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–010.8%
2–19.9%
2–09.8%
0–16.0%

Recent form

Baltika

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 0-0 (D)

FC Rostov

2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Krasnodar · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dynamo	10	7	1	2	7	22
2	CSKA Moscow	10	6	4	0	9	22
3	Zenit	10	7	0	3	11	21
4	FC Krasnodar	10	6	3	1	6	21
5	Spartak Moscow	10	6	2	2	9	20
6	Rubin	10	2	6	2	0	12
7	FC Orenburg	10	2	6	2	1	12
8	Baltika	10	3	3	4	2	12
9	Dinamo Makhachkala	10	4	0	6	-5	12
10	Krylia Sovetov	10	2	6	2	-1	12
11	Akhmat	10	2	5	3	0	11
12	FC Rostov	10	3	2	5	-6	11
13	Lokomotiv	10	2	4	4	2	10
14	Akron	10	1	5	4	-8	8
15	Rodina Moskva	10	1	2	7	-15	5
16	Fakel	10	0	3	7	-12	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Baltika win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.