Rostec Arena · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Baltika vs Zenit Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Baltika and 1.26 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Zenit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baltika home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zenit to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Baltika and 1.26 for Zenit, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–08.1%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Baltika
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Zenit · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 0-0 (D)
Zenit
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.