· Analysis updated 09:23 UTC
Balzers II vs Eschen / Mauren III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.40 expected goals for Balzers II and 1.54 for Eschen / Mauren III, a combined total of 5.94. That distribution gives Balzers II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Balzers II win
83.2% probability
Expected goals
4.40 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balzers II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Balzers II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 9% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.40 goals for Balzers II and 1.54 for Eschen / Mauren III, a combined 5.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 75%, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.3%
- 3–15.7%
- 5–15.6%
- 4–24.9%
- 3–24.4%
Recent form
Balzers II
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruggell III · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren III · 6-1 (W)
- 2025-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren II · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaduz II · 0-5 (L)
- 2023-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruggell II · 0-2 (L)
Eschen / Mauren III
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · Balzers II 6-1 Eschen / Mauren III (Cup)
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vaduz II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 2 | Balzers II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 3 | Ruggell II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Schaan II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Triesenberg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Triesen II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Schaan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Vaduz III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Eschen / Mauren II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ruggell III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 12 | Balzers III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 13 | Triesenberg II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Triesen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Balzers II win, at 83.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.