Sportplatz Rheinau · Analysis updated 23:24 UTC
Balzers II vs Schaan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Balzers II and 3.50 for Schaan, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives Schaan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Schaan win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 3.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Balzers II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Schaan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schaan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 27% / 16% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Balzers II and 3.50 for Schaan, a combined 6.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–35.5%
- 2–44.8%
- 2–24.7%
- 3–34.6%
- 1–34.4%
Recent form
Balzers II
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruggell III · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren III · 6-1 (W)
- 2025-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren II · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaduz II · 0-5 (L)
- 2023-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruggell II · 0-2 (L)
Schaan
- 2025-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ruggell · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruggell II · 1-2 (L)
- 2023-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren · 1-2 (L)
- 2022-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Balzers II · 2-3 (L)
- 2022-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaduz III · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2022-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · Balzers II 3-2 Schaan (Cup)
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vaduz II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 2 | Balzers II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 3 | Ruggell II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Schaan II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Triesenberg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Triesen II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Schaan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Vaduz III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Eschen / Mauren II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ruggell III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 12 | Balzers III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 13 | Triesenberg II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Triesen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Schaan win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.