Sportplatz Rheinau · Analysis updated 19:13 UTC
Balzers III vs Vaduz III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Balzers III and 2.30 for Vaduz III, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives Vaduz III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vaduz III win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vaduz III away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vaduz III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 20% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Balzers III and 2.30 for Vaduz III, a combined 4.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–16.2%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–35.5%
Recent form
Balzers III
- 2026-08-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Schaan II · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruggell III · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaduz III · 2-6 (L)
Vaduz III
- 2026-09-02T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Triesen II · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Triesen · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruggell III · 7-3 (W)
- 2025-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Eschen / Mauren III · 5-1 (W)
- 2024-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ruggell · 0-8 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Balzers III 2-6 Vaduz III (Cup)
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vaduz II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 2 | Balzers II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 3 | Ruggell II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Schaan II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Triesenberg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Triesen II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Schaan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Vaduz III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Eschen / Mauren II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ruggell III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 12 | Balzers III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 13 | Triesenberg II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Triesen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vaduz III win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.