· Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Bamber Bridge vs Quorn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Bamber Bridge and 2.00 for Quorn, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Bamber Bridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bamber Bridge home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Quorn away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bamber Bridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 21% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Bamber Bridge and 2.00 for Quorn, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.3%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.9%
Recent form
Bamber Bridge
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quorn · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alfreton Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trafford · 1-3 (L)
Quorn
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hyde United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Workington · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 17 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 21 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.