· Analysis updated 00:22 UTC
Banbury United vs Stratford Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Banbury United and 0.98 for Stratford Town, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Banbury United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Banbury United win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Banbury United home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stratford Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 51.9% vs market 47.0%, edge +4.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.0% | 51.9% | 1.93 | +4.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.5% | 51.5% | 1.94 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.1% | 26.3% | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.8% | 1.34 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 48.5% | 48.5% | 2.06 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.50 | 25.4% | 25.2% | 3.97 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.0% | 48.1% | 2.08 | -4.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Banbury United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stamford · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stratford Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough Sports · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Worcester City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leiston · 1-2 (L)
Stratford Town
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough Sports · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stamford · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leamington · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Banbury United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Evesham United · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · Banbury United 2-3 Stratford Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2026-02-24T19:45:00.000Z · Banbury United 0-0 Stratford Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Banbury United 3-0 Stratford Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Banbury United 0-0 Stratford Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · Banbury United 1-1 Stratford Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2022-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · Banbury United 1-0 Stratford Town (FA Cup)
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Needham Market | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Peterborough Sports | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 9 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Racing Club Warwick | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Hitchin Town | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Banbury United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Leiston | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Stratford Town | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 19 | Leamington | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -32 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Banbury United win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.