Bandari vs Tusker Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bandari and 1.00 for Tusker, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Bandari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Bandari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 29% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Bandari and 1.00 for Tusker, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 69% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 38/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Bandari win40%

Draw29%

Tusker win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–013.3%
0–111.4%
0–011.4%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Bandari

2026-06-14T09:00:00.000Z · A vs KCB · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mathare United · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tusker · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs APS Bomet · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-16T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Police · 0-0 (D)

Tusker

2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KVZ · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayon Sports · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Hilal Omdurman · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mathare United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ulinzi Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	GOR Mahia	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	AFC Leopards	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	KCB	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Posta Rangers FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Bandari	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Homeboyz	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Police	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Migori Youth	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Murang'a SEAL	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Mombasa Elite	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Nairobi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	3K	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.