· Analysis updated 11:03 UTC
Banfield Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Banfield Res. and 1.01 for Atlético Tucumán Res., a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Atlético Tucumán Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Banfield Res. home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Tucumán Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Tucumán Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 32% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Banfield Res. and 1.01 for Atlético Tucumán Res., a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.4%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Banfield Res.
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tucumán Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanús Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 2-0 (W)
Atlético Tucumán Res.
- 2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.