Banfield Res. vs Vélez Sársfield Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Banfield Res. and 1.40 for Vélez Sársfield Res., a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Vélez Sársfield Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vélez Sársfield Res. win

53.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.73 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Banfield Res. home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vélez Sársfield Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Banfield Res. win19%

Draw28%

Vélez Sársfield Res. win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–116.7%
1–112.1%
0–011.9%
0–211.7%
1–08.7%

Recent form

Banfield Res.

2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tucumán Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanús Res. · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Godoy Cruz Res. · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 2-0 (W)

Vélez Sársfield Res.

2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferro 2 · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Santa Fe Res. · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · Banfield Res. 1-0 Vélez Sársfield Res. (Reserve League)
2026-02-04T20:00:00.000Z · Banfield Res. 1-3 Vélez Sársfield Res. (Reserve League)
2024-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · Banfield Res. 1-2 Vélez Sársfield Res. (Reserve League)
2024-04-17T18:00:00.000Z · Banfield Res. 1-0 Vélez Sársfield Res. (Reserve League)
2023-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · Banfield Res. 0-0 Vélez Sársfield Res. (Reserve League)
2023-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Banfield Res. 2-2 Vélez Sársfield Res. (Reserve League)
2022-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Banfield Res. 1-3 Vélez Sársfield Res. (Reserve League)

Reserve League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8
1	Independiente Res.	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Lanús Res.	12	8	2	2	10	26
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	12	7	2	3	11	23
4	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	12	6	5	1	6	23
5	River Plate Res.	12	5	7	0	10	22
6	Boca Juniors Res.	12	6	4	2	8	22
7	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	6	4	2	2	22
8	Estudiantes La Plata Res	12	6	3	3	8	21
9	Vélez Sársfield Res.	12	5	5	2	8	20
10	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	12	6	2	4	2	20
11	Rosario Central Res.	12	5	5	2	1	20
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	12	5	4	3	0	19
13	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	12	4	5	3	5	17
14	Huracán Res.	12	5	2	5	4	17
15	Sarmiento Res.	12	4	5	3	3	17
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	12	4	5	3	2	17
17	San Lorenzo Res.	12	5	2	5	2	17
18	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	4	5	3	1	17
19	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	3	7	2	7	16
20	Quilmes 2	12	4	4	4	0	16
21	Instituto Res.	12	3	6	3	-1	15
22	Atlético Tucumán Res.	12	4	3	5	-4	15
23	Newell's Old Boys Res.	12	3	5	4	2	14
24	Tigre Res.	12	4	2	6	-5	14
25	Racing Club Res.	12	2	7	3	-1	13
26	Defensa y Justicia Res.	12	2	6	4	-1	12
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	3	3	6	-9	12
28	Aldosivi Res.	12	2	5	5	-4	11
29	Argentinos Juniors Res.	12	2	5	5	-5	11
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	12	2	4	6	-12	10
31	Independiente Riva. Res.	12	2	3	7	-10	9
32	Banfield Res.	12	2	3	7	-12	9
33	Colón Res.	12	2	2	8	-9	8
34	Barracas Central Res.	12	1	5	6	-11	8
35	Platense Res.	12	0	7	5	-9	7
36	Ferro 2	12	1	3	8	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vélez Sársfield Res. win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.