Estadio Florencio Sola · Referee L. Lobo Medina · Analysis updated 16:17 UTC
Banfield vs Tigre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Banfield and 1.23 for Tigre, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Banfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Banfield home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tigre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Banfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Banfield and 1.23 for Tigre, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Banfield
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
Tigre
- 2026-10-10T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.