Gargzdai stadium · Referee M. Lukjancukas · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Banga vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Banga and 1.39 for Kauno Žalgiris, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Kauno Žalgiris the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kauno Žalgiris win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Banga home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kauno Žalgiris away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 76.4% | 77.9% | 1.28 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.28 | 71.1% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +1.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.77 | 51.1% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 44.6% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 26.9% | 27.3% | 3.66 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 56.6% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.8% | 72.9% | 1.37 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.4% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 48.9% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.95 | 23.6% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.6% | 27.0% | 3.70 | -1.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 56.2% | 54.3% | 1.84 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Banga
- 2026-09-19T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · H vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 1-1 (D)
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-10-11T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šiauliai · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T15:45:00.000Z · Banga 0-0 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2026-06-17T16:00:00.000Z · Banga 1-0 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z · Banga 2-2 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2026-02-28T12:15:00.000Z · Banga 0-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Banga 0-0 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Banga 0-0 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-06-30T16:00:00.000Z · Banga 0-2 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2025-04-27T13:30:00.000Z · Banga 1-0 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2024-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Banga 1-1 Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga)
- 2024-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · Banga 1-0 Kauno Žalgiris (Cup)
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | Banga | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -4 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kauno Žalgiris win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.