Gargzdai stadium · Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
Banga vs Panevėžys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Banga and 0.68 for Panevėžys, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Banga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.
Model pick
Banga to Win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Banga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Banga and 0.68 for Panevėžys, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Model confidence
Banga to Win is the headline pick at 61% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Banga
Panevėžys
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A Lyga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 37 |
| 2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 37 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Banga | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -17 | 23 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 24 | 4 | 10 | 10 | -15 | 22 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | -28 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.