Banga vs Panevėžys Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Banga and 0.83 for Panevėžys, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Banga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Banga win

52.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Banga home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Panevėžys away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Banga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 27% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Banga and 0.83 for Panevėžys, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Banga win52%

Draw27%

Panevėžys win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.8%
1–112.2%
2–010.8%
0–010.1%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Banga

2026-09-19T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · H vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-30T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 1-1 (D)

Panevėžys

2026-10-17T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Banga · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

A Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kauno Žalgiris	28	14	9	5	36	51
2	Suduva Marijampole	29	13	11	5	10	50
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	29	14	5	10	11	47
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	29	13	7	9	8	46
5	Banga	29	11	8	10	3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	10	9	10	-4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	10	5	14	-13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	29	4	14	11	-17	26
9	Šiauliai	29	3	8	18	-34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Banga win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.