Banga vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Banga and 1.25 for Suduva Marijampole, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Banga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Banga home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Suduva Marijampole away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Banga win43%

Draw25%

Suduva Marijampole win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–09.6%
2–19.0%
0–18.0%
1–27.5%

Recent form

Banga

2026-09-19T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Džiugas Telšiai · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · H vs TransINVEST Vilnius · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panevėžys · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-30T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 1-1 (D)

Suduva Marijampole

2026-10-10T11:15:00.000Z · A vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann Litauen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T15:45:00.000Z · Banga 0-3 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2026-06-13T11:15:00.000Z · Banga 0-0 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2026-04-11T13:30:00.000Z · Banga 2-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2025-09-21T15:25:00.000Z · Banga 0-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2025-08-17T15:25:00.000Z · Banga 1-2 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2025-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Banga 0-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2025-03-09T16:25:00.000Z · Banga 0-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Banga 0-2 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2024-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · Banga 1-0 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)
2024-06-01T14:00:00.000Z · Banga 0-1 Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)

A Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kauno Žalgiris	28	14	9	5	36	51
2	Suduva Marijampole	29	13	11	5	10	50
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	29	14	5	10	11	47
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	29	13	7	9	8	46
5	Banga	29	11	8	10	3	41
6	Džiugas Telšiai	29	10	9	10	-4	39
7	Panevėžys	29	10	5	14	-13	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	29	4	14	11	-17	26
9	Šiauliai	29	3	8	18	-34	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.