Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bangkok United and 1.13 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Bangkok United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bangkok United home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
BG Pathum United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bangkok United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Bangkok United and 1.13 for BG Pathum United, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bangkok United win43%

Draw27%

BG Pathum United win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.2%
0–19.1%
2–18.8%
0–08.1%

Recent form

Bangkok United

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lamphun Warrior · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sisaket United · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayong FC · 1-1 (D)

BG Pathum United

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiangrai United · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayutthaya FC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Thai League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Port FC	6	5	0	1	7	15
2	Prachuap	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Buriram United	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Ratchaburi	6	3	1	2	6	10
5	Uthai Thani	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	Ayutthaya FC	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Bangkok United	6	3	1	2	2	10
8	Sisaket United	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	BG Pathum United	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sukhothai FC	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Rayong FC	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Lamphun Warrior	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Chiangrai United	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Pattani	6	1	1	4	-6	4
15	Chonburi FC	6	1	0	5	-4	3
16	Rasi Salai United	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.