Rafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium · Analysis updated 01:20 UTC
Bangladesh Police vs Arambagh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bangladesh Police and 0.53 for Arambagh, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives Bangladesh Police the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bangladesh Police win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bangladesh Police home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arambagh away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.1%
- 2–014.4%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Bangladesh Police
- 2026-10-10T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Fakirerpool · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs City Club · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Chattogram · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Rahmatgonj MFS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 0-1 (L)
Arambagh
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bashundhara Kings · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Abahani · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Bangladesh Police · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Mohammedan Dhaka · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-30T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Brothers Union · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-15T09:45:00.000Z · Bangladesh Police 2-0 Arambagh (Premier League)
- 2025-12-26T08:30:00.000Z · Bangladesh Police 3-0 Arambagh (Premier League)
- 2025-12-02T08:30:00.000Z · Bangladesh Police 1-0 Arambagh (Federation Cup)
- 2021-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · Bangladesh Police 1-0 Arambagh (Premier League)
- 2021-02-25T09:00:00.000Z · Bangladesh Police 2-1 Arambagh (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bashundhara Kings | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 41 |
| 2 | Abahani | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 37 |
| 3 | Fortis | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 5 | Mohammedan Dhaka | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Brothers Union | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 17 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -13 | 17 |
| 9 | Arambagh | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -16 | 14 |
| 10 | Fakirerpool | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -31 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bangladesh Police win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.