· Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Bangladesh U17 vs Timor-Leste U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.27 expected goals for Bangladesh U17 and 1.01 for Timor-Leste U17, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Bangladesh U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bangladesh U17 win
80.5% probability
Expected goals
3.27 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bangladesh U17 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bangladesh U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.27 goals for Bangladesh U17 and 1.01 for Timor-Leste U17, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 61%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.1%
- 3–08.1%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 4–16.7%
Recent form
Bangladesh U17
- 2025-11-30T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China PR U17 · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-11-28T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain U17 · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-11-26T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Sri Lanka U17 · 5-0 (W)
- 2025-11-24T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei U17 · 8-0 (W)
- 2025-11-22T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste U17 · 5-0 (W)
Timor-Leste U17
- 2025-11-30T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Sri Lanka U17 · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-11-28T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Brunei U17 · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-26T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain U17 · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-11-24T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China PR U17 · 0-14 (L)
- 2025-11-22T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangladesh U17 · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-22T06:00:00.000Z · Bangladesh U17 5-0 Timor-Leste U17 (AFC U17 Asian Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bangladesh U17 win, at 80.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.