Yanmar Stadium Nagai · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Bangladesh W vs Myanmar W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Bangladesh W and 1.80 for Myanmar W, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Bangladesh W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bangladesh W home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bangladesh W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Bangladesh W and 1.80 for Myanmar W, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.4%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Bangladesh W
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T07:00:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-14T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR W · 0-10 (L)
- 2026-03-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea DPR W · 0-5 (L)
Myanmar W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Asian Games Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 9 |
| 2 | Chinese Taipei W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Vietnam W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 4 | Thailand W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 1 | Korea DPR W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 7 |
| 2 | South Korea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 3 | Myanmar W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 1 |
| 4 | Bangladesh W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -16 | 1 |
| 1 | China W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Uzbekistan W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Philippines W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Hong Kong W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Philippines W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 2 | Vietnam W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 3 | Myanmar W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.