· Analysis updated 01:27 UTC
Bangu U20 vs Flamengo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Bangu U20 and 2.03 for Flamengo U20, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Flamengo U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flamengo U20 win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bangu U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flamengo U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 13% / 20% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Bangu U20 and 2.03 for Flamengo U20, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.8%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–38.6%
Recent form
Bangu U20
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maricá U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda U20 · 0-0 (D)
Flamengo U20
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maricá U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense U20 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Flamengo U20 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Botafogo U20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Bangu U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Sampaio Correa FE U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 15 |
| 7 | Madureira U20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Nova Iguaçu U20 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | Boavista U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Maricá U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Volta Redonda U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Portuguesa RJ U20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flamengo U20 win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.