· Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Bangu U20 vs Resende FC U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.43 expected goals for Bangu U20 and 0.92 for Resende FC U20, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Bangu U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bangu U20 win
83.6% probability
Expected goals
3.43 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bangu U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Resende FC U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bangu U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.43 goals for Bangu U20 and 0.92 for Resende FC U20, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.6%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–07.6%
- 4–07.4%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Bangu U20
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maricá U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda U20 · 0-0 (D)
Resende FC U20
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa RJ U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda U20 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-03-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Olaria U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bangu U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boavista U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Rio U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | América RJ U20 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Fluminense U20 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 17 |
| 4 | Botafogo U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 15 |
| 5 | Bangu U20 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Flamengo U20 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 |
| 7 | Portuguesa RJ U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sampaio Corrêa U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Madureira U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Boavista U20 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Resende FC U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Nova Iguaçu U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Cabofriense U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Olaria U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 15 | Maricá U20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda U20 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bangu U20 win, at 83.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.