Štadión Kalinovo · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Baník Kalinovo vs Podkonice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Baník Kalinovo and 2.12 for Podkonice, a combined total of 3.79. That distribution gives Podkonice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Podkonice win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 2.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baník Kalinovo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Podkonice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Podkonice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 31% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Baník Kalinovo and 2.12 for Podkonice, a combined 3.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Baník Kalinovo
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rimavská Sobota · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dolný Kubín · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rimavská Sobota · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Podkonice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs MFK Bytča · 0-2 (L)
Podkonice
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolný Kubín · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kysucké Nové Mesto · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Námestovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ružomberok II · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fomat Martin · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - Center table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ružomberok II | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Námestovo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Fiľakovo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Fomat Martin | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Čadca | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Podkonice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Rimavská Sobota | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Novohrad Lučenec | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Baník Kalinovo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Oravské Veselé | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 11 | Banská Byst II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Sokol Medzibrod | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 13 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 14 | Dolný Kubín | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Podkonice win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.