· Analysis updated 11:54 UTC
Baník Kalinovo vs Sokol Medzibrod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Baník Kalinovo and 1.20 for Sokol Medzibrod, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Baník Kalinovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baník Kalinovo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sokol Medzibrod away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baník Kalinovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Baník Kalinovo and 1.20 for Sokol Medzibrod, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Baník Kalinovo
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Námestovo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok II · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fomat Martin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Medzibrod · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Novohrad Lučenec · 1-2 (L)
Sokol Medzibrod
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Kalinovo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rimavská Sobota · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Novohrad Lučenec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dolný Kubín · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Banská Byst II · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - Center table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ružomberok II | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 29 |
| 2 | Námestovo | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Čadca | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 25 |
| 4 | Fomat Martin | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | Fiľakovo | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Oravské Veselé | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 | Podkonice | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Baník Kalinovo | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 16 |
| 9 | Rimavská Sobota | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Novohrad Lučenec | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Banská Byst II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 13 | Sokol Medzibrod | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -21 | 8 |
| 14 | Dolný Kubín | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.