Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Malženice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom and 2.25 for Malženice, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

59.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malženice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 19% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom and 2.25 for Malženice, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win40%

Draw19%

Malženice win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score80%

Correct score

2–27.1%
1–26.3%
2–16.3%
1–15.6%
2–35.3%

Recent form

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

2026-10-24T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Prešov · 2-3 (L)

Malženice

2026-10-25T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Zlaté Moravce · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pohronie · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 2-5 (L)
2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petržalka · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Šamorín	14	10	2	2	11	32
2	Petržalka	14	9	3	2	13	30
3	Považská Bystrica	14	8	2	4	4	26
4	Žilina II	14	7	3	4	4	24
5	Pohronie	14	7	2	5	4	23
6	Galanta	14	7	2	5	0	23
7	Tatran Prešov	14	6	4	4	2	22
8	Inter Bratislava	14	5	6	3	12	21
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	14	5	4	5	3	19
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Slovan Bratislava II	14	4	5	5	2	17
12	Malženice	14	4	3	7	-2	15
13	Zlaté Moravce	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	Humenné	14	3	3	8	-11	12
15	MFK Bytča	14	3	0	11	-22	9
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	14	1	3	10	-14	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.