Futbalovy stadion OFK Banik · Analysis updated 00:00 UTC
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Zlaté Moravce Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom and 1.18 for Zlaté Moravce, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zlaté Moravce away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom and 1.18 for Zlaté Moravce, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
- 2026-10-24T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Prešov · 2-3 (L)
Zlaté Moravce
- 2026-10-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Komárno · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Humenné · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Bratislava · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 32 |
| 2 | Petržalka | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 26 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Galanta | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 7 | Tatran Prešov | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 8 | Inter Bratislava | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 | Malženice | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Humenné | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | -22 | 9 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.