Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich · Referee M. Radina · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.80 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Sigma Olomouc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sigma Olomouc win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baník Ostrava home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sigma Olomouc away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.9%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–06.1%
Recent form
Baník Ostrava
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kladno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 1-2 (L)
Sigma Olomouc
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teplice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Plzen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Prostějov · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
- 2026-02-07T14:00:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 2-0 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
- 2025-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 0-1 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
- 2025-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 0-0 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
- 2025-04-22T17:00:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 2-3 Sigma Olomouc (Cup)
- 2025-02-09T14:30:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
- 2024-09-01T12:30:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 2-2 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
- 2024-03-09T17:00:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 1-2 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
- 2023-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 3-0 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
- 2023-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · Baník Ostrava 4-1 Sigma Olomouc (Czech Liga)
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Sigma Olomouc | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Zbrojovka Brno | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Sparta Praha | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Teplice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Plzen | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Bohemians 1905 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Artis | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sigma Olomouc win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.