Baník Sokolov vs Chomutov Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Baník Sokolov and 1.47 for Chomutov, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Baník Sokolov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baník Sokolov home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chomutov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Baník Sokolov win38%

Draw25%

Chomutov win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–18.4%
1–28.4%
1–07.7%
0–17.7%

Recent form

Baník Sokolov

2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Ostrov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Meteor Praha · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovy Vary · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hvězda Cheb · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slaný · 2-1 (W)

Chomutov

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostrov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovy Vary · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hvězda Cheb · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slaný · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Štětí · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T08:15:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 0-1 Chomutov (4. liga - Divizie B)
2026-06-13T08:15:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 2-2 Chomutov (4. liga - Divizie B)
2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 2-1 Chomutov (4. liga - Divizie B)
2021-07-24T09:00:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 1-0 Chomutov (Friendlies Clubs)
2020-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 1-2 Chomutov (Friendlies Clubs)
2020-02-22T10:00:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 6-0 Chomutov (Friendlies Clubs)

4. liga - Divizie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sokol Hostouň	10	7	1	2	18	22
2	Chomutov	10	7	1	2	12	22
3	Újezd Praha 4	10	6	2	2	5	20
4	Rapid Psáry	10	6	1	3	12	19
5	Baník Sokolov	10	6	0	4	8	18
6	Meteor Praha	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Brandýs nad Labem	10	5	0	5	0	15
8	Slaný	10	4	2	4	8	14
9	Tempo Praha	10	4	2	4	2	14
10	Slovan Velvary	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Karlovy Vary	10	4	1	5	2	13
12	Štětí	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Ostrov	10	3	1	6	-10	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	10	2	1	7	-14	7
15	Hvězda Cheb	10	2	1	7	-19	7
16	Ústí nad Labem II	10	1	3	6	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.