Baník Sokolov vs Ostrov Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.95 expected goals for Baník Sokolov and 1.28 for Ostrov, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Baník Sokolov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Baník Sokolov win

71.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.95 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baník Sokolov home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ostrov away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Baník Sokolov win71%

Draw15%

Ostrov win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–18.1%
3–18.0%
2–06.4%
3–06.3%
4–15.9%

Recent form

Baník Sokolov

2026-10-24T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Újezd Praha 4 · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-17T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Brandýs nad Labem · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Hostouň · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tempo Praha · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Ostrov · 1-2 (L)

Ostrov

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chomutov · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Baník Sokolov · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Psáry · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slavoj Vyšehrad · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 1-2 Ostrov (4. liga - Divizie B)
2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 1-1 Ostrov (4. liga - Divizie B)
2025-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 0-2 Ostrov (4. liga - Divizie B)
2025-08-02T08:15:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 1-1 Ostrov (Cup)
2025-04-26T08:15:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 3-1 Ostrov (4. liga - Divizie B)
2024-09-28T14:30:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 2-2 Ostrov (4. liga - Divizie B)
2020-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · Baník Sokolov 2-2 Ostrov (Friendlies Clubs)

4. liga - Divizie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chomutov	12	9	1	2	15	28
2	Sokol Hostouň	12	8	1	3	18	25
3	Újezd Praha 4	12	7	3	2	6	24
4	Rapid Psáry	12	7	2	3	14	23
5	Slaný	12	5	3	4	12	18
6	Baník Sokolov	12	6	0	6	5	18
7	Brandýs nad Labem	12	6	0	6	1	18
8	Štětí	12	5	3	4	1	18
9	Karlovy Vary	12	5	2	5	3	17
10	Tempo Praha	12	5	2	5	3	17
11	Meteor Praha	12	5	1	6	-2	16
12	Slovan Velvary	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Hvězda Cheb	12	3	1	8	-14	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	12	3	1	8	-14	10
15	Ostrov	12	3	1	8	-17	10
16	Ústí nad Labem II	12	2	3	7	-21	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Baník Sokolov win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.