Baniyas Stadium · Analysis updated 01:23 UTC
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.51 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Nasr win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baniyas SC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nasr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Baniyas SC and 1.51 for Al Nasr, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Baniyas SC
- 2026-10-16T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:10:00.000Z · A vs Ajman · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-01T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Dhafra · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 0-0 (D)
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baniyas SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Riffa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nasr win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.