Bansko vs Oborishte Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Bansko and 1.50 for Oborishte, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Bansko the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bansko win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bansko home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oborishte away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Bansko win53%

Draw21%

Oborishte win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–19.0%
1–18.4%
2–26.8%
3–16.5%
1–26.3%

Recent form

Bansko

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyustendil · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Strumska Slava · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oborishte · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 4-1 (W)

Oborishte

2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra 2019 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Simitli · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Bansko 0-4 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Bansko 1-0 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Bansko 2-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2025-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · Bansko 0-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2024-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · Bansko 0-0 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2024-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · Bansko 3-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2023-10-27T13:00:00.000Z · Bansko 0-0 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2022-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · Bansko 0-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2021-11-06T12:00:00.000Z · Bansko 1-1 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)
2021-02-24T12:00:00.000Z · Bansko 0-0 Oborishte (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	11	8	2	1	18	26
2	Oborishte	10	6	4	0	12	22
3	Bansko	10	7	1	2	8	22
4	Strumska Slava	10	6	1	3	8	19
5	Septemvri Sofia II	10	6	1	3	5	19
6	Balkan Botevgrad	11	6	1	4	0	19
7	Kostinbrod	11	6	0	5	6	18
8	Botev Ihtiman	10	5	0	5	1	15
9	Slivnishki geroy	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	Septemvri Simitli	11	3	4	4	-4	13
11	Slavia Sofia II	10	4	0	6	1	12
12	CSKA Sofia III	10	2	6	2	0	12
13	Levski Sofia II	11	3	3	5	-2	12
14	Belasitsa	11	3	2	6	-4	11
15	Chavdar Etropole	11	3	1	7	-16	10
16	Kyustendil	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Natsional Sofia	11	1	4	6	-8	7
18	Pirin Razlog	11	2	1	8	-17	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bansko win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.